A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
